Gold Futures Under Pressure: Analyzing the Bearish Shift from Macro to Charts

Brief Overview of Recent Hot Topics in Gold Futures

A stronger US dollar and market expectations that the Fed will not cut interest rates in the near term (or weakened expectations for rate cuts) are the primary macroeconomic factors currently suppressing gold prices. A strong dollar increases the holding cost of dollar-denominated gold, dampening overseas demand.

Investors have recently engaged in significant profit-taking, coupled with ETF outflows (short-term pullbacks following the previous substantial rally), which has amplified the short-term correction.

Key macroeconomic events/data (such as US economic data, CPI, employment figures, and statements from Fed officials) remain the "catalysts" for short-term direction; therefore, any unexpected data or comments can magnify volatility.

---

The indicator used in the chart is the TPR indicator. Red crosses indicate resistance (and also the downtrend line), green indicates support (and also the uptrend line). Small yellow and blue dots represent potential reversal point.

Analysis of the Upper Section – 5-Minute Chart (Short-term/Intraday Perspective)

Overall Structure and Rhythm

From left to right, we can see: first a period of sideways/gradual upward movement (TPR turns from red to green and holds), followed by a rapid, pronounced decline towards the right part of the chart (several long bearish candlesticks), representing a rapid trend shift + momentum acceleration. After the decline, a slight rebound occurs, turning into consolidation/small-scale upward movement, but the overall short-term bias remains bearish (TPR turns from green back to red and shows consecutive red signals).

The "Trend Duration Table" in the lower left corner of the TPR chart shows the recent duration of downtrends and uptrends: short-term trends alternate frequently (average cycle around a dozen or so candlesticks), indicating fast trading rhythm and many false breakouts on the 5-minute level.

Key Price Levels and Structure (Based on Chart Scale and Recent Highs/Lows)

• Short-term Support: Around 3940 (the price found support/rebounded multiple times near 3940 in the chart). If this level is weakly broken (broken with a high-volume bearish candle), a further short-term decline is likely.

• Short-term Resistance/Key Resistance Zone: Around 3968–3980 (an area where multiple pullbacks were rejected during the decline). If the price returns to but cannot break through this zone, it can continue to be viewed as a confirmation area for downward momentum.

Technical Rhythm and Signal Interpretation (TPR and Candlesticks)

• TPR turning from green to red and showing consecutive red symbols indicates a shift from short-term bullish to bearish. If TPR prints consecutive "new lows" during the decline accompanied by the appearance of cyan dots (marking potential key points), it shows strong short-term selling pressure.

• The long bearish candlestick(s) during that rapid decline indicate short-term dominance by sellers. If volume was significantly higher during the decline, subsequent pullbacks often encounter "renewed selling pressure."

• Short-term Trading Approach: Still primarily trend-following.

  • Criteria for Shorts: If the 5-minute chart pulls back above ~3970 but TPR remains red and cannot turn green, consider shorting (stop-loss can be placed a few points above the pullback high).

  • Criteria for Longs: If the 5-minute chart effectively stabilizes and TPR turns green (confirmed by cyan dots/TPR bullish signals), a small long position for a reversal can be considered, but requires a stricter stop-loss.

Risk Warning (5-Minute)

• High frequency of trend switches and many false breakouts; frequent reversals occur on the 5-minute chart.

• Use smaller position sizes and tight stop-losses.

• If macroeconomic data (CPI/employment/Fed speaker comments) is released during the session, volatility may increase sharply in the short term. Short-term strategies should reduce leverage or avoid establishing positions before data releases.

Analysis of the Lower Section – 15-Minute Chart (Short-to-Medium-term / Higher Intraday Timeframe)
(The 15-minute chart is below, with thicker candlesticks and a "smoother" trend.)

Overall Structure and Rhythm

The 15-minute chart shows a clearer structure shifting from consolidation/gradual uptrend to downtrend: over a longer period, the price has retreated from highs and shows consecutive lower movements on the right side of the chart (TPR consistently indicates a downtrend), suggesting the short-to-medium-term trend is shifting from bullish to bearish, or at least entering a correction phase.

Compared to the 5-minute chart, trends on the 15-minute chart last longer ("Longest Down-Trend: 41, Avg Down-Trend: 16" in the Trend Duration Table), meaning the directional reliability of a single trend is somewhat higher on the 15-minute timeframe.

Key Price Levels and Structure (15-Minute)

• Main Pivot/Resistance: The approximate 3980–4000 range (multiple 15-minute candlesticks formed overhead pressure in this area).

• Main Support: Around 3935–3945 (the price touched this area multiple times on the 15-minute chart and briefly stabilized/rebounded).

• If the 15-minute chart prints a long bearish candle with a lower shadow accompanied by TPR turning red, it indicates confirmation of weakness on the medium timeframe. A clear breakdown on the 15-minute level (closing below support with the candle body) suggests a higher probability of the medium-term downtrend continuing.

Technical Rhythm and Signal Interpretation (15-Minute)

• The TPR on the 15-minute chart turning from green to red and persistently showing a downtrend, coupled with a lack of sustained, effective recovery rallies (pullbacks being rejected), points to short-to-medium-term bearish control.

• Long bearish candlesticks on the 15-minute chart indicate strong selling momentum. If the next key support (~3935) is substantially broken and the 15-minute candle closes below it, there is a higher probability of a deeper retracement (next support level might be around 3900, requiring confirmation from larger timeframes).

Trading Hints (15-Minute)

• Trend or swing traders might prefer waiting for 15-minute confirmation (e.g., one or two consecutive 15-minute candle bodies remaining below key resistance) before entering short positions. Stop-loss can be placed above the 15-minute pullback high, targeting the next structural support.

• Consider medium-term long positions only if clear reversal patterns appear on the 15-minute chart (high-volume rise with TPR turning green and holding); otherwise, the bias remains bearish.

Comprehensive Analysis Integrating 5-Minute and 15-Minute Charts (Multi-Timeframe Analysis)

• Multi-Timeframe Consistency: Both charts show a recent shift from bullish to bearish (the 5-minute shows rapid switching and confirmation of downtrend, the 15-minute shows a more established downtrend). Therefore, the conclusion of "short-term trend-following shorts + short-to-medium-term bearish bias" is consistent.

• Strength Comparison: The confirmed bearishness on the 15-minute chart suggests it's not merely short-term intraday selling pressure but carries some short-to-medium-term momentum (combined with news: strong dollar and profit-taking). The 5-minute chart is suitable for finding entry timing (shorting with high probability during pullbacks to resistance), while the 15-minute chart is used to determine the primary direction and confirm stop-loss/target levels.

Key Focus Points (Watersheds determining whether the trend continues down or turns bullish):

• Important Support near 3940: If substantially broken on the 15-minute chart with confirmed closes below, the downside space opens up (targeting the next support zone).

• Resistance Zone 3968–3980: If the price pulls back and strongly breaks through this area, closing above it on the 15-minute chart with TPR turning green, then the short-to-medium-term bearish trend might be over, requiring re-evaluation for long opportunities.

Trading Strategy Suggestions (Combining Both Charts):

• Conservative: Wait for 15-minute direction confirmation (e.g., two consecutive 15-minute closes below resistance as a short signal), then enter short positions in parts during pullbacks to resistance on the 5-minute chart. Place stop-loss above the 15-minute pullback high, and take profits gradually at 15-minute support levels.

• Aggressive/Intraday: On the 5-minute chart, during rejected pullbacks (e.g., touching near 3970 with TPR turning red again and resistance holding), enter small short positions with strict stop-loss (e.g., placed above the pullback high + X ticks), and manage position size pyramidally (adding less as confirmation increases).

• Conditions for Longs (Cautious): Must see strength on the 15-minute chart (several green candles closing with TPR stably green and recovering previous decline areas), AND see substantive changes in the USD/macro environment that benefit gold (e.g., the Fed clearly indicating easing or a sharp drop in the dollar).

Summary (Key Points)

• Macro Perspective: The recent short-term correction in gold prices is driven by a strong US dollar, expectations of no Fed rate cuts, and some profit-taking. Short-term news and data (CPI, employment, official comments) will continue to amplify market volatility.

• Multi-Timeframe Conclusion: Both 5-minute and 15-minute charts favor a bearish bias (the 15-minute shows the short-to-medium-term trend is more favorable for bears), so the primary approach for the short-to-medium term is trend-following shorts. Long positions require stronger structural confirmation.

• Key Levels: Resistance around 3968–3980, Support around 3935–3945 (if broken, look for lower levels). The 5-minute chart can be used as an entry timer, the 15-minute for direction confirmation and stop-loss/target setting.

• Trading Discipline: Use small position sizes, set strict stop-losses (especially near macroeconomic data releases), add positions based on 15-minute confirmation; avoid chasing prices or using heavy leverage before data announcements.