Channel Down
The Channel Down pattern, also known as Descending Channel pattern, is when prices bounce off
between two parallel lines for some time, and the direction of these two lines points to the lower right.
In a downtrend, the highs and lows of the price continue to move downward.
The upper line is drawn by connecting prominent but lower highs, known as the trendline,
and it functions as a resistance level. The lower line is then drawn out in parallel to the upper line
with lower lows and acts as a support level. The lower highs formed is because the seller is bearish
on the market outlook, so they are willing to sell even if the price is lower than the previous high.
Given the overall trend is downward, the buyer is willing to spend more time waiting for the price to
be lower than the previous one before entering the market, so lower lows are formed.
In odd cases, the channel can either be narrow or has a steep downward slope, almost becoming a
vertical channel. Both situations are usually difficult to maintain for a long time. The former reflects
that the bulls and bears are in contention but evenly matched. The latter could be affected by either
bad news or a technical plunge, but very short-lived.
Trading Strategy
Generally speaking, as long as the price is declining and moves within the channel, it will
rebound when it falls to the support level (lower line), and when it reaches the upper line,
it will encounter resistance and falls back. A short-term trading strategy
can come into play here, for example, an experienced trader could take advantage
of the confined price action by opening a short position or selling when the price touches
the upper line and closing short or buying when the price is at the lower line.
A risk with this strategy is that there is never a guarantee the price will reach the support line,
so the trader needs to proceed with caution. Also, we argue this strategy should not be used
for mid-term or long-term purposes for it would be a downward purchase.
In a weak market, the price can fall deeper and deeper without support,
and the downward purchase is a situation where the more it falls the more a person buys.
To us, this is taboo as far as investment strategy goes.
Traders should wait patiently for the descending channel to be broken, which we will discuss
next.
The Channel Down pattern can break out in either direction: upward or downward.
If the price breaks the upper boundary, it’s considered a trend reversal, on the flip side,
if it trades through the lower line, it’s a continuation of the current trend.
· Upward breakout--If the price fails to reach the lower support level, it could be an early sign that the
trend is likely to reverse, but it should not be taken as the only signal.
In those situations, to confirm the upward breakout, a trader should verify a bullish signal
from other technical indicators as well. Once the reversal is confirmed, it would be the
best time to enter a buy position. After the price trades above the descending channel,
it will sometimes retract to and retest the previous resistance level, but the price should
not fall back into the channel, otherwise, it’s a false breakout. In general, the pattern with
a longer formation time brings a greater increase in price compared to the pattern with a
shorter time to form. After an effective upward breakthrough, the price increase is
normally at least the vertical height of the descending channel or sometimes multiple of
such distance. If more highs are connected at the upper line, it means the resistance level
is relatively difficult to break through, and when it does happen, it’s likely the market will
experience a sharp rise.
· Downward breakout—if the price penetrates the lower boundary line, it indicates not only the current
downward trend will continue, it will go down at a faster speed.
If more lows are situated on the lower line, it means the level of support is very strong,
and the chances of the market falling below this level are relatively smaller.
But if the support level is indeed broken, the decline would be relatively large.
Again, always remember to consult other technical indicators to ensure it’s a true breakout.
If it’s confirmed, holders with existing positions can consider clearing the position to avoid
losses due to the price declines, and those without any holdings can wait on the sideline
for the next opportunity to come.
Final words:
The channel down pattern works on almost all the time frames and chart types and best of all,
our indicator will automatically detect and draw out the Channel Down chart pattern for you.
For more details about this indicator, please visit patternsmart.com
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